Commentary: What’s next for gold, the Dollar, U.S. economy and inflation?
Posted by silentarchimedes on October 28, 2008
The economic turmoil the past two months has sent some very mixed signals to people who do not fully understand the commodities market cycles and global economic forces. The global economic train is now in the midst of a long and dark recession tunnel. The actions taken by the large economies of the world, such as the United States, and European countries, the past two months have made the average investor skittish and scared. They see stalwart financial companies like AIG, Wachovia, Washington Mutual and General Electric either crash and burn or bought out by other companies or halved in price. Their 401Ks, Roth IRAs and other investment accounts tumbled. To make matters worse, they see high crude oil prices that had peaked above $140/barrel go on a crash dive to barely above $60. Wasn’t the global demand of oil, especially from China, India and other emerging markets suppose to keep gas prices above $4.00 for good? Now they are back well below $3.00. Other commodity prices, such as silver, copper and platinum followed suit. All tanked from multi-year highs just reached not long ago this year.
However, contradicting this gloomy wave of news was the ‘strengthening’ of the U.S. dollar and the 30%-plus drop of gold prices. Gold was supposed to be seen as the safe haven when things go bad. Well, now things are really bad so why is gold also dropping? And why is the dollar strengthening when the U.S. economy is tanking? How can this be? In the simplest explanation, although quite wrong and unsubstantiated, was that the commodity bubble had bursted. Gold dropped because the demand for commodities was over. Many people began believing this and even some gold bugs were confounded by what was going on.
Their is a very simple explanation for it, and all the reasons for the dollar strengthening and gold prices crashing are all temporary. As a matter of fact, it provides the best opportunity to buy gold in several years. The recession is in much deeper quicker than anyone thought. Many investors are being forced to sell even their safest haven assets in order to cover for their losses on the risky side, such as stocks, houses, hedging, etc. This includes the liquidation of gold. They do not want to do this but are forced to. This is a major factor in the instability on the down side of gold. Second, the safest non-gold haven for money is U.S. Treasuries. They are one of the only things that guarantee still a net positive return, albeit a small interest rate, at this juncture in the economy. Countries have no choice but to buy more Treasuries because the faith in other fiat currencies is still not strong enough since this is a global recession. This temporary strength in the dollar against other fiat currencies also has a downward push on gold prices and other commodity prices since they are all priced in the dollar. That means $100 now buys more gold than before.
The thing is these two actions are only temporary. These actions are only to save the global recession from a global depression right now. These are short-term reactions to a longer term problem. These actions are known as deleveraging. It is allowing the new economic state to take root. It is a finite process and will soon come to an end. Why? The federal reserve continues to pump lots of new unbacked dollars into the economy. And the $700 billion dollar bailout begins this week. The Feds announced that they will give the initial $125 billion dollars to nine banks. What does this all mean? INFLATION! And soon, HYPER-INFLATION. U.S. Treasuries will have no choice but to increase their interest rates in order for countries to continue buying them. Mortgage rates will rise, as they already are, even though recession takes root. The dollar will reverse trend and weaken due to inflationary pressures. More dollars will come home to roost from other countries. What does all this mean? Gold will rise, rise, rise.
Update 6:15pm: So the Dow Jones goes up 890 points (10.88%) today, with the NASDAQ and S&P500 posting similar percentage increases today. The two main reasons for such a historic rise (second largest point increase of Dow Jones ever) is due to bargain hunters and an expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Although the cut might help in the credit and liquidity crisis, this is another long-term inflationary signal. If Treasuries have lower interest rates, who will buy them? More Dollars will come back to America, which means a weaker dollar. Although this might help the current local minimum (credit and liquidity), the entire graph continues to head towards a weaker dollar and a continuation of the commodities bull market and a rise in gold prices.
Disclaimer: This is a commentary by an amateur investor and is not meant to be taken as professional advice.