Silent Archimedes

Posts Tagged ‘2009’

My 2009 Predictions

Posted by silentarchimedes on January 22, 2009

Here are my 2009 predictions. None that are too far out there. Just a basic assessment of what I think might happen in 2009.


Barack the Celebrity

Barack the Celebrity

Obama’s approval ratings remain historically high but lower than the inauguration euphoria – Obama’s ability to inspire change and leadership at such a dour time in America gives him public leeway not seen since, well, 9/11. However, Obama’s pragmatism will help him keep the country on course and inspired throughout 2009. He has already made key changes in ethics regulations and state diplomacy in his first days in office. The only thing that will stop him will be… Congress.

Don’t expect much from Congress – Congress had lower approval ratings than President Bush in 2008, even with the Democratic majority and push for change. Expect the same from Pelosi and Reid, who are not strong leaders and have plenty of personal ambitions to prove Congressional strength to the Executive strength. Couple with the Republicans fight for relevancy, expect a 2009 of posturing and tit-for-tats. 2010 seems like a better year for Congress because the public will side with Obama over the frustrating bureaucracy in Congress in 2009.


The market moves sideways – There will be strong forces pulling the economy from both the recession side and the growth side. It is what I call the economic paradox. As the economy falls, oil prices drop and the US Dollar rises (somewhat surprisingly). However, as global growth resumes, oil demand and  commodity prices rise again and the US Dollar falls (since investors will begin investing in riskier assets instead of US Treasuries). Both are problems for America. Obama seems focused on passing bills and bailouts that will help light a fire under the economy, especially job market. However, the more he does the more inflation becomes a risk. Expect several major rises and several major slides, but by the end of 2009, the Dow Jones will still be in the 7500-9000 range.

Gold surpasses $1000/oz again – Because of the economic paradox, gold will continue to maintain its safe haven status in 2009. One of these days, gold will surpass $1000/oz again. In looking at the GLD chart, gold hit a low in mid-Nov 08 and has since built a nice rising linear resistance that it bounded in early Dec 08 and mid Jan 09. If gold breaks the upper linear resistance of $900/oz expect $1000/oz in Feb 09. If it does not expect a pullback. Aside from the technicals, 2009 is still a year of unforeseen economic strife and that will keep the price of gold high. Depending on where the economic paradox is at the end of 2009, gold will either be well above $1000/oz or testing it’s multi-year lows of $700/oz again.

Gold (GLD) prices from Jan 2008 to Jan 2009

Gold (GLD) prices from Jan 2008 to Jan 2009 (12-EMA green, 50-EMA red)

There will only be one viable American automaker by year’s end – The Big Three is already, in essence, the Small Two. Chrysler’s recent gift of 35% stake to Fiat for its access to technology and services is a desperation move to prove to the U.S. government that it has a viable plan to survive. However, the U.S. government is not going to perpetually support a half-foreign owned company at taxpayers expense. As for GM and Ford, 2009 will still be a very tough market. Any uptick by buyers will simply be for fuel efficient cars built by Toyota, Honda and even Hyundai. GM is effectively surviving on federal assistance, which runs out every few months. A radical solution has to found soon. Don’t fret though, because of the uniqueness of this market, hopes abound for small automakers that can make a difference in “green” vehicles.


yankeesYankees back in business – Sorry non-Yankees fans, but 2009 is appearing to be the Year of the Yankees. A new stadium, a team salary in excess of $200 million, a re-focused Arod with Mark Texeira pushing him, injury free Posada, Matsui and Chamberlain? It’s gonna be a great three-team AL East battle all summer. Yankees will win the division and make it to the World Series once again.


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Did anyone realize it’s 2009!?! A short look back at the first decade of the 21st century.

Posted by silentarchimedes on January 16, 2009

Happy 2009!

Happy 2009!

The year is now 2009! Just ten years ago, the country was at the height of the dot com era. I was in my last year of my undergraduate years and very eager to graduate and join the exciting dot com workforce. It seemed like paradise at the time. I remember getting about ten job interviews and declining several others. I remember the offers that came in from startup companies to established corporations. I also remember gasoline in Pittsburgh being around 90 cents because it was the only semester I had a car with me. The only thing that scared people in 1999? The Y2K problem. I also remember people being relieved that the Clinton presidency was coming to an end because of the Lewinsky embarrassment. That was ten years ago…

Now it’s 2009. A lot has happened the past ten years; the first decade of the 21st century. The decade that I grew up, age wise, at least. It is a different country now. A more sober country. A battle-tested country and a depressed and pessimistic country. Although most people heaved a sigh of relief when the Y2K problem never materialized, it wasn’t long before the country would begin a string of events that has led to the current depressed state. 9/11 occurred. The dot com bubble busted. The telecom industry collapsed. The Afghanistan War began. The Patriot Act was passed. The country went into and out of a recession. The Iraq War began. The energy crisis began. Hurricane Katrina happened. The housing bubble inflated and popped. The credit bubble inflated and popped. The country went into another recession. And not to mention the Yankees haven’t won a World Series since 2000. It has been a very trying decade.

However, the country and myself are in the same situation as we were ten years ago. I will be finishing my studies and looking to enter the workforce once again. The country is full of hope again that a new presidency can bring much needed change. Although the hope and environment are different this time around, we must draw strength from what we have endured and learned in the past ten years. Personally, I am a much more patient, practical and, believe it or not, optimistic person than I was ten years ago. Although I was more energetic and sharper back in my early twenties, the experiences I have gone through in my twenties has made me a much more balanced person that cherishes even the simple things in life. I believe this country is similarly in the same state. During the dot com era, the country seemed to move about with reckless abandon, as if the paradise would last forever. Now after ten years of hardship, the country must learn from these experiences and come together as one country to come out of this recession stronger and more optimistic.We have to because we have plenty more challenges to face in the second decade of this century.

I am excited at what the last year of the first decade of the 21st century brings.  I am excited at the future of America. The 2008 elections were one of the most exciting ever and to see Americans rise up and meet the challenge was very refreshing. 2009 marks the end of an era and the beginning of another, for this country and for myself…

Happy new year!

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